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钢铁行业2021年度策略:提质增效
发表于:2021-1-7 8:52:00  

应对疫情“焉知非福”:2020年突如其来的疫情是各国政策决策最大的先决条件,卫生安全和经济恢复之间的权衡取舍各异。中国政策偏向重防疫轻刺激,供给恢复强于需求。美国政策取向恰好相反,重刺激轻防疫。短期来看海外经济需求端恢复快于供给端恢复速度。在这种情况下,海外疫情反而为国内钢铁下游制品出口创造了良好的机遇,与此同时年初疫情下国内前期宽松的信贷环境支撑房地产行业快速恢复,两者为国内钢铁行业下游需求恢复提供了强劲动力。

产能扩张的反噬:供给侧改革后钢铁盈利在2018年达到历史高位,钢铁固定资产投资高峰随之到来,投资增速在2019年上半年达到峰值。由于政策对钢铁产能新建的限制,钢铁产能扩张主要以技改和产能置换的方式进行,其中产能置换项目在2020年开始集中投产,2021年置换项目投产的力度仍然不小。供应的增长虽然受到产能置换政策约束,但实际落地中技改、以大换小等实际因素导致产能仍呈净增长态势,我们预计2021年国内钢铁供应能力净增3574万吨。

地产长期繁荣后的演变:地产连续五年繁荣后,积累了较大均值回归的压力,但2020年在宽松信贷环境下销量继续维持高位。2021年地产下行拐点出现之前仍有望支撑钢铁需求景气,叠加制造业投资的修复和外需对工业的拉动,2021年上半年钢铁需求仍有望顺势冲高,但后期需注意政策收紧后的地产均值回归风险。综合地产、基建、制造业、出口的判断,我们预计2021年钢产量增速为2.8%。

把握节奏和结构:综合供需来看,2021年钢铁平均产能利用率预计下降0.5%。虽然年度钢铁产能利用率和盈利均值预计变化不大,但如果2021年需求呈前高后低走势,则行业基本面在年内可能面临较大波动。因此在投资策略方面,要注重节奏和结构的把握。节奏方面主要把握上半年Beta机会,上半年高供应增量和强需求的组合下,上游资源价格弹性可能仍然较大,钢铁盈利弹性虽然受供应制约,但在商品价格上行周期的末段,周期板块往往较易获得资金流入,催生板块性机会。结构方面,钢铁冷轧品种供应无明显增量,在需求扩张的背景下盈利弹性较大。

2020转危为安

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产能扩张的反噬

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延迟的需求衰退周期

地产:瓜熟待落

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基建:以稳为主

2020NIANGUANGYIZHICHUKUOZHANGBINGWEIDAIDONGJIJIANDAFUHUISHENG:WEIYINGDUIYIQINGCHONGJI,ZHENGFUFAXINGLETEBIEGUOZHAI、KUODALEZHUANXIANGZHAIFAXING,CHENGTOUZHAIFAXINGYEMINGXIANSHANGSHENG(QIAN11YUETONGBI+27%),DANJIJIANZENGSUBINGWUDAFUKUOZHANG。QIAN11YUEJIJIANZENGSUTONGBI+3.3%,QIZHONGLADONGGANGTIEXUQIUJIAOQIANGDEJIAOTONGLEITOUZIJINZENGZHANG2%。YIQINGFASHENGHOUBAOJIUYECHAOYUEBAOZENGZHANGCHENGWEIGENGZHONGYAODERENWU,CAIZHENGZHICHUJIEGOUSHANGZENGSUJIAOGAODESHISHEHUIBAOZHANGHEJIUYE、NONGLINSHUISHIWULIANGXIANG,JINNIANZHENGFUGONGZUOBAOGAOWEISHEDINGZENGZHANGMUBIAO,YILUOSHILIUWENLIUBAOWEIZHU,GUDIFANGZHENGFUDAGUIMOTUIDONGJIJIANDEDONGLIBUQIANG。

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JIJIANZHANWANG:YIQINGCHONGJIXIAKUODAJIJIANCIJIDEPOQIEXINGXIANRANGENGQIANG,ZAIZHEIYANGDEBEIJINGXIA,2020NIANJIJIANZENGSURENGRANPIANDI,ERMUQIANJINGJIYIJINGXIANZHUXIUFU,JIASHANGXUQIUCEGAIGEDEZHENGCEDAOXIANG,JIAONANZHIWANG2021NIANJIJIANZAIYOUMINGXIANKUOZHANG。DANGRAN“BUJIZHUANWAN”DEJIDIAOXIA,JIJIANTOUZIYELIYINGBUHUIDAFUJIANGWEN,YUJIMINGNIANJIJIANKENENGHUISHIXIANYIGEZENGSUDIYU2020NIANDEWEIFUZHENGZENGZHANG。

制造业:景气延续

ZHIZAOYESHILADONG2020NIANGANGTIEXUQIUDEZHONGYAOYINSU。SUIRANGONGYEZENGJIAZHIZHENGTIZENGSUBINGBUSUANGAO,1-11YUELEIJIZENGZHANG2.3%,DANHAOGANGQIANGDUGAODEZHIZAOYEMENLEIBIAOXIANTUCHU。LIUDAGAOHAOGANGGONGYE(JINSHUZHIPIN、TONGYONGSHEBEI、ZHUANYONGSHEBEI、QICHE、YUNSHUSHEBEI、DIANQIJIXIEJIQICAI)QIAN11YUEGONGYEZENGJIAZHIZENGSUYUEWEI4.6%,ZHEISHIZAISHANGBANNIANYIQINGDEQINGKUANGXIASHIXIANDE,ERJIDUYILAILIUDAXINGYEGONGYEZENGJIAZHIZENGSUGAODA9.7%。ZHIZAOYEJINGQIZHUYAOLADONGGANGTIEBANCAIXUQIU,YINGLIFANGMIANBIAOXIANTUCHUDESHILENGYAPINZHONG,YINWEISHOUYIYUXIAYOUQICHE、JIADIANDEFUSU,TONGSHIGONGYINGHUANJINGXIANGDUIGENGYOU,LENGYABANYINGLIZAI2020NIANXIABANNIANXIANZHUHUINUAN。

CHUKOUDEFANRONGYUCHIXUXING:CHUKOUDUIYULIUDAZHIZAOYEDELADONGZHUYAOTIXIANZAI8YUEYIHOU,QIAN11YUELEIJICHUKOUSHUJUBINGBUTUCHU,LIUDAXINGYECHUKOUHUOZHITONGBIFUZENGZHANG0.8%。SANJIDUYILAIYOUYUHAIWAIJINGJIJIANDIHUISHENG,JIASHANGWOGUOCHUKOUFENEZENGZHANG,CHUKOUSHUJUXIANZHUHUINUAN,LIUDAXINGYECHUKOUTONGBIZAI8YUEHOUZHUANZHENG,11YUEDECHUKOUHUOZHITONGBIZENGSUDADAO14%,DUICHANCHULADONGMINGXIAN。ZHANWANGWEILAI,ZHONGDUANQIHAIWAIJINGJIHUISHENGSHILIHAOYINSU,DANHAIWAIGONGYINGDEHUIFUHUODUIWOGUOCHUKOUFENEXINGCHENGYAZHI,CHUKOUFENEKUOZHANGSHITOUKENENGFANGHUAN。DIEJIAJISHUYINSU,2021NIANZHIZAOYECHUKOUKENENGCHENGQIANGAOHOUDIDEZOUSHI,SHANGBANNIANCHUKOUDUIGONGYECHANCHUDELADONGKENENGGENGQIANG。

ZHIZAOYETOUZIJIEDUANXINGXIUFU:ZONGHELAIKAN,CILUNGONGYECHANCHUDEKUOZHANGYOUNEIXUJICHUKOUSHUANGLUNQUDONG,JINGQIDUDEHUISHENGDAILAIYINGLIXIUFU,ZI2019NIANYILAI,GONGYELIRUNZAI10YUESHOUCIHUIFULEIJITONGBIZHENGZENGZHANG。XIANGYINGDE,ZHIZAOYETOUZIZENGSUYEZAICHUDIHUISHENG,TOUZIBODONGDEJIEZOUYIBANZHIHOUYUYINGLI,YUJIHUISHENGQUSHIJIANGCHIXUYIDUANSHIJIAN,DANSHOUZHIYUZHANGQIYUQI,ZHIZAOYETOUZIDAFUKUOZHANGDEGAILVJIAODI。JIEHECHUKOUDEQINGKUANGLAIKAN,WOMENRENWEIGANGTIEXIAYOUZHIZAOYECHANCHUDESHANGXINGGUANXINGYOUWANGZAIZHONGDUANQINEIWEICHI,DANCHIXUXINGTIAOZHANJIAODA,YALIKENENGZAI2021NIANXIABANNIANXIANXIAN。

内需汇总

ZHENGTIKANWOMENYUJI2021NIANNEIXUCHENGQIANQIANGHOURUOGEJU,QIZHONGDICHANCHUYUZHONGZHOUQIHEDUANZHOUQISHANGXINGMODUAN,DICHANTOUZISHANGBANNIANRENGKENENGWEICHIJIAOGAOJINGQIDU,HOUQIZECUNZAIJUNZHIHUIGUIYALI。ZHIZAOYESHOUYIYUHAIWAIJINGJIFUSUJIZHIZAOYETOUZIHUISHENG,YUJIRENGYOUWANGWEIGANGTIEXUQIUGONGXIANZENGLIANG。JIJIANZENGZHANGKENENGHUIXIANGDUIFALI,YIWENWEIZHU。JIEHEZIXIAERSHANGHEZISHANGERXIADEXUQIUCESUAN,YUJIQUANNIANGANGTIENEIXUZENGSU0.9%。

净出口有望显著回升

2020NIANHAIWAIGANGTIEDAOLIU:2005NIANHOUWOGUOCHENGWEIGANGTIEJINGCHUKOUGUO,FANYINGDESHIGUONEIGANGTIEZHIZAOXIAOLVYOUSHI,CHANNENGKUOZHANGDAOZHIGUONEIGONGYINGGUOSHENG,CONGERTUIDONGCHUKOUZENGZHANG。GANGTIEJINGCHUKOUDEZENGZHANGCHIXUZHI2015NIAN,2016NIANHOUSHOUYIYUGONGJICEGAIGEJIGUONEIGANGTIEXUQIUDEHUISHENG,GUONEIGUOSHENGCHENGDUSUOJIAN,GANGTIEJINGCHUKOUHUILUO。2020NIANGANGTIEJINGCHUKOULIANGYUJIDAFUSHOUSUOZHI1QIANWANDUNZUOYOU,FANYINGDESHIXINGUANYIQINGCHONGJIHAIWAIXUQIU,HAIWAIYELIANNENGLIGUOSHENG。KAOLVDAFUZENGJIADESHENGTIEHEGANGPIJINKOUHOU,WOGUOZAI2020NIAN6-9YUECHENGWEIGANGTIEJINGJINKOUGUO,SUIHOUSUIZHEHAIWAIJINGJIDEHUISHENG,JINGCHUKOUZAIDUHUIGUI。

2021NIANBANCHENGPINJINKOUYUJIMINGXIANHUILUO:CONG2019NIANYILAI,GANGPI、SHENGTIELIANGDABANCHENGPINJINKOUZHUBUZENGJIA,ZAI2020NIANSANJIDUDADAOFENGZHI,BANCHENGPINJINKOUDAZENGYOULIANGFANGMIANYUANYIN。YISHIWOGUOFEIGANGJINKOUSHANGWEIFANGKAI,ZAI9YUEFENQIANGUONEIWAIFEIGANGJIACHAPIANGAO,GANGQIZHUANERJINKOUBANCHENGPIN。ERSHISHOUYIQINGCHONGJIHAIWAIGANGTIECHANNENGGUOSHENGJIEDUANXINGJIAJU,GUONEIBANCHENGPINYIJIAMINGXIAN。RANERJINQIXINGSHIFASHENGMINGXIANBIANHUA,GUONEIWAIFEIGANGYIJIAHUILUOZHI2016-2017NIANSHUIPING,ZHEIYIFANGMIANYOUYUHAIWAIGANGQIFUCHANJIASU,YUANLIAOXUQIUHUISHENG,LINGYIFANGMIAN《ZAISHENGGANGTIEYUANLIAO》GUOJIABIAOZHUNYIJINGFABU,YU2021NIANKAISHISHISHI,FUHEBIAOZHUNDEFEIGANGJINKOUFANGKAI。CIWAIHAIWAIJINGJIHUISHENGYETUIDONGGUONEIWAIGANGPIJIACHASHOUZHAI,JINKOUJINGJIXINGYIJINGDABURUQIAN,YUJI2021NIANGANGTIEBANCHENGPINJINKOUJIANGMINGXIANHUILUO。

2021NIANCHUKOUYOUWANGXIANZHUHUISHENG:11YUEWOGUOGANGTIECHUKOULIANGYIJINGCHUBUHUINUAN,JINQIHAIWAIGANGTIEYIJIACHIXUKUODA,MEIGUOREJUANYUZHONGGUOJIACHACONG8YUEDIDIAN-87MEIYUAN/DUNDAFUHUISHENGZHICHAOGUO200MEIYUAN/DUN,GAOJIACHAJIANGTISHENGGANGQICHUKOUDONGLI,YUJIWEILAISHUYUECHUKOULIANGJIANGJINYIBUSHANGXING。CIWAIGUONEIWAIJINGJIZHOUQIJIEZOUDECHAYIYEDUIHOUQIZHONGGUOGANGTIECHUKOUYOULI。HAIWAIYIQINGKONGZHIBULI,OUMEIJINGJIJIANDISHIJIANWANYUWOGUO,JINGJIZHOUQIZHIHOU1-2GEJIDU,WEILAINEIXUDUANZHOUQIJIANDINGHOU,OUMEIKENENGCHUYUSHANGXINGCHONGDINGQI,CISHIWAIXUYOUZHUYUXIAOHUAWOGUOGUOSHENGCHANLIANG,LIYUCHUKOU。

JINCHUKOUHUIZONG:ZONGTILAIKANSHOUHAIWAIJINGJIHUISHENG、FEIGANGJINKOUFANGKAIYUQIDENGYINSUYINGXIANG,2021NIANGANGTIEWAIMAOXINGSHIYOUWANGMINGXIANHAOZHUAN,BANCHENGPINJINKOUYOUWANGHUILUO、CHUKOUHUINUAN,YUJIQUANNIANJINGCHUKOULIANGYUJIYUEZAI3000WANDUN。

供需汇总

钢铁:年度小波动、年内大波动

ZONGHEQIANWENGONGXUFENXI,DICHANCHUYUZHONG、DUANZHOUQISHANGXINGDEWEIBUJIEDUAN,JIJIANYIWENWEIZHU,ZHIZAOYEDUANQIRENGSHOUYIYUHAIWAIJINGJIFUSUJIZHIZAOYETOUZIHUISHENG,CHUKOUYOUWANGMINGXIANGAISHAN,ZHENGTIKANMINGNIANSHANGBANNIANGANGTIEXUQIUJINGQIDURENGRANJIAOGAO,XIABANNIANKENENGJIANGWEN,QUANNIANNEIWAIXUQIUYUJIZENGZHANG2.8%,2021NIANGANGCHANLIANGYUJIWEI10.8YIDUN。GONGYINGDUANFANGMIAN,QIYU2018NIANDECHANNENGKUOZHANGZHOUQIJINRUZHONGHOUDUAN,WEILAIJIANGJINGLICHANNENGCONGGAOFENGDAOWEISHENGDEGUOCHENG,2021NIANGANGTIEGONGYINGNENGLIZENGLIANG3574WANDUN,ZENGFU3%。PINGJUNCHANNENGLIYONGLVXIAJIANG0.5%,JINGUANNIANDUCHANNENGLIYONGLVBIANHUABUDA,DANRUGUO2021NIANXUQIUCHENGQIANGAOHOUDIZOUSHI,ZECHANNENGLIYONGLVZAINIANNEIKENENGMIANLINJIAODABODONG。

铁矿:海外需求复苏和供应增长的角力

QUANQIUXUQIUYOUWANGHUISHENG:YOUYUHAIWAIYIQINGFANGKONGBULI,HAIWAIXUQIUSHOUYINGXIANGDESHIJIANHEFUDUDOUCHAOGUOWOGUO,2020NIANQIAN11YUEHAIWAIGANGCHANLIANGFUZENGZHANGYUE9%。JINGUANYIQINGRENGWEISHOUKONG,DANSIJIDUOUMEIGONGYESHENGCHANYIJINGMINGXIANHUISHENG,CHIXUDIMIDEZHUYAOSHIFUWUYE,11YUEHAIWAIGANGCHANLIANGYISHIXIANDANYUETONGBI5%DEZENGZHANG。YOUYUDIJISHUYUANYIN,2021NIANHAIWAISHENGTIEYOUWANGSHIXIANMINGXIANZHENGZENGZHANG,JIEHEMINGNIANWOGUODEZENGLIANG,WOMENYUJI2021NIANTIEKUANGSHIXUQIUTONGBIZENGZHANGYUE4%,YUE8QIANWANDUN。

GONGYINGZENGLIANGZHUYAOLAIZIBAXIJIFEIZHULIUKUANG:2021NIANAOZHOUKUANGSHANJINGZENGLIANGYOUXIAN,SANDAAOKUANGJUNYOUXINKUANGSHANTOUCHAN,DANZHUYAOSHITIDAIKUJIELAOKUANG。QIZHONGLITUODEXIANJILASIXIANGMU2021NIANTOUCHAN,YONGYUWEICHIRobeValleyCHANNENG;BIHEBITUO8000WANDUNSouthFlankXIANGMUNI2021NIANNEIZHONGTOUCHAN,YONGYUTIDAIYANGDIKUANG;FMG3000WANDUNEliwanaXIANGMU2020NIAN12YUETOUCHAN,YONGYUQUDAIFiretailKUANG。DANSHUIHEGUZENGLIANGZHUYAOLAIZIQIANQITINGCHANKUANGQUDEFUCHAN。MINGNIANFEIZHOU、YAZHOU、MEIZHOUDIQUYEJIANGGONGXIANYIDINGZENGLIANG,YUJI2021NIANQUANQIUTIEKUANGSHIGONGYINGZENGLIANGYUE9000WANDUN。

GONGYINGZENGLIANGLVEDUOYUXUQIU:ZHENGTIKAN2021NIANTIEKUANGSHIGONGYINGZENGLIANGLVEDUOYUXUQIUZENGZHANG,JUNJIAYUJILVEYOUXIAYI。NIANNEIJIEZOULAIKAN,SHANGBANNIANRENGCHUYUHAIWAIJINGJISHANGXINGXIELVJIAOKUAIDEJIEDUAN,JIEHEGUONEIXUQIUQIANGAOHOUDIDEJIEZOU,YUJITIEKUANGXUQIUZAI2021NIANSHANGBANNIANDAODAGAODIAN,JIAGEYUJICHONGGAOHUILUO。

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波音体育:沈阳市恒拓机械加工厂    地址:沈阳市大东区高官台街32号D区21号(东二环,沈抚立交桥北侧500米)
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